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smyke — Tue, 22 Apr 2008 09:41:19 +0000

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Miami Quarter Finals

smyke — Wed, 02 Apr 2008 19:12:00 +0000

So we have reached the quarter finals. It should be an interesting day…

Federer – Roddick
Roddick has played very well this season, but had some moments when he lacked concentration, losing to mediocre players. He already won 2 tournaments this year and holds a 18-3 record so far.
On the other hand, Federer is… Federer. There is little to say about the Swiss except the fact that he is definitely not on top of his game at the moment. He dominates the head to head with 16-2. My guess is this one will go in 3 sets, but Federer will win it.

TIP :
Federer to win 2-1 : 4 units @ 4.33 – BET365

Davydenko – Tipsarevic
Davydenko is the player with the most consistency in the ATP circuit. Personally, i don’t like him nor his tennis but i must admit he is an example of concentration and mental stability trough out his entire career. His record this year is 16-5 : not better not worse compared to his last 3 or maybe even 4 years.
Tipsarevic is a player i am considering to bet more on in the next few weeks if his odds don’t drop too much after this tournament. He is a player that does not stand out but has decent skills. He is not exactly top 10 material yet, but his game is solid without impressing.
My guess is Davydenko’s experience will make the Russian grab this one.

TIP :
Davydenko(-3) to win, 5 units @ 2 – BE365

Miami : Round 4

smyke — Tue, 01 Apr 2008 18:19:00 +0000

TIP :
Davydenko, N – Ancic, M : Ancic to win 3 units @ 1.73 -NOXWIN LOST

Miami : Round 3

smyke — Mon, 31 Mar 2008 12:33:00 +0000

Today the round 3 matches from the top of the main draw are to be played. I have to say that my guess is that whoever wins the upper side of the draw will be the winner of this tournament. Mainly because Federer is here, but also because players like Tsonga, Ancic and Roddick are not be overlooked.

Roger Federer – Robin Soderling
These guys have played 4 times before, Federer winning all of them, but 3 of them were very close, the last of them (in Halle 2006) being a double tie-breaker in favor of the Swiss. Soderling is playing really well this season, but Federer has lost a little too much, and has shown some commitment to his game in this tournament. Federer is most likely to get it, but my guess is that it will be close.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga v Julien Benneteau
This is a match i think Tsonga will dominate. He is playing well (not like he played in the Australian Open), but still, some good quality tennis throughout this season. On the other side, Benneteau is a mediocre player, losing this season to Querrery, Haas, Youzhny and Seppi while grabbing no major win this season. 13-5 for Tsonga this season while Benneteau is at 8-6. Tsonga is most likely to win this one.

Juan Monaco v Mario Ancic
I just have no clue why the odds on Ancic have been this high all season. I mean, he is a very good player, and he came back well from the injury he sustained last year. Ancic is 11-3 this season, and he defeated players like Tsonga, Baghdatis, Soderling and Murray this season, while losing only in front of top players : Murray, Ljubicic and Ferrero. Ok, maybe the loss against Ljubicic poses some questions, but Juan Monaco, a clay-player that lost to Calleri, Horna and Canas in the last 3 tournaments while grabbing only 2 victories, has few hopes against Ancic. How can anyone pass out on a 1.50 odd on this match ?

Ivo Minar v Andy Roddick
Nothing but the March-madness can make Roddick lose this match. I am hoping that this has passed. Roddick has a great season 16-3. The only time he actually slipped was in front of T. Haas 2 weeks ago. He won 2 tournaments so far this year, ranked fifth in the ATP race. Minar had a decent year so far, but i don’t think this qualifier can upset Roddick on home ground. Small odds tough for Andy.

TIP :
Tsonga – Benneteau, Tsonga to win @ 1.26 -NOXWIN LOST
Monaco – Ancic, Ancic to win @ 1.47 -NOXWIN OK
Minar – Roddick, Roddick to win @ 1.08 -NOXWIN OK
TOTAL : 7 units @ 2.00 – NOXWIN – LOST

Ballance This Week: -7 UNITS
Ballance This Month : +10.01 units
Overall Ballance : +10.01 units

Miami : Third Round

smyke — Sat, 29 Mar 2008 10:16:00 +0000

Yesterday, all things went well except Djokovic’s loss against K. Andreson. I did not watch this match, but Djokovic did not play like he used to and of that i am sure. I usually don’t play small odds, not even in a combo, because things like this might happen. But this was one of the safest match in tennis betting history. Oh well, let’s hope things will go better today.
There are 2 matches that i find quite interesting today. The first of them is the match between R. Soderling and S. Wawrinka. Wawrinka played well lately, but not as convincing as Soderling. Maybe i’m a little subjective here, but i think Soderling will win this one.
The second match is where Ancic and Murray meet. Murray is a great player, but the odds on Ancic are just too high considering the way the Croatian is playing lately. Murray is also a player that might play well, but he might play awfull.
So… these are the bets for today :

Simone Bolelli v Ph. Kohlschreiber : Kohlschreiber to win @ 1.26 – NOXWIN LOST
Robin Soderling v Stanislas Wawrinka : Soderling to win @ 1.56 – NOXWIN OK
Total : 7 units @ 2.03 – NOXWIN lost

Mario Ancic v Andrew Murray : Ancic to win 5 units @ 2.75 -NOXWIN OK +8.75

Ballance This Week: -1.33 units
Ballance This Month : +17.01 units
Overall Ballance : +17.01 units

Miami : Third Round

smyke — Fri, 28 Mar 2008 15:22:00 +0000

Well, yesterday not a lot of things happened, maybe today. It’s good that the bet i proposed was a winner, but still the odds are very low for the ones i think will win, and i found no interesting match that was close enough to bet on the underdog.
Today i am still hoping to accumulate odds from the favorites. Blake is just to good to be defeated by Seppi, even tough the italian plays a very odd tennis. It can be close, but the American is playing well enough to catch it in straight sets.

4 COMBO TIP :
Andreas Seppi v James Blake : Blake to win @ 1.25 OK
Juan Carlos Ferrero v Albert Montanes : Ferrero to win @ 1.12 OK
Kevin Anderson v Novak Djokovic : Djokovic to win @ 1.05 LOST
Benjamin Becker v Rafael Nadal : Nadal to win @ 1.05 OK
TOTAL : 7 units @ 1.55 -BET365 LOST

Ballance This Week: -3.08 units
Ballance This Month : +15.26 units
Overall Ballance : +15.26 units

Miami : Second Round

smyke — Thu, 27 Mar 2008 15:17:00 +0000

Back in business ! Today we will have a few interesting matches, but i won’t jump ahead and post predictions, since it’s a long tournament and there’s plenty of time for betting once i can analyze how these guys are playing under the Miami sun.

This is the combo bet i recommend for today :

COMBO BET TIP:
Mario Ancic v Gilles Simon : Ancic to win @ 1.30 – BET365 OK
These guys never played before, but there’s a big difference concerning the way they got trough the start of the season : Ancic is 9-3 this season, playing very well and losing only in front of top players like : Murray, Ljubicic and Ferrero. Simon on the other hand is 10-7 and the fact that he defeated an injured Djokovic (in Marseille) does not count. He showed that he is just a mediocre player at the moment. He fully deserves his No. 34 ranking at the moment. Ancic will win this one without a doubt.

Robin Soderling v Stefan Koubek : Soderling @ 1.15 -BET365 OK
I wouldn’t normally bet on such small odds, but Soderling has been displaying some quality tennis.

TOTAL : 8 UNITS @ 1.49 – BET365 OK +3.92 units

Ballance This Week: +3.92 units
Ballance This Month : +22.26 units
Overall Ballance : +22.26 units

Indian Wells Thoughts

smyke — Mon, 24 Mar 2008 13:41:00 +0000

I’m sorry i was not able to cover the semifinals and the final of the Indian Wells tournament last week, but i was on a trip. I will try to post some thoughts about the players.

First of all, Mardy Fish had 2 weeks of top-class tennis. Not only because he defeated Federer (wow), but also Mayer, Andreev, Davydenko and Nalbandian before upsetting the Swiss Machine (not actually a machine anymore ). If Djokovic wasn’t the player he is at the moment (best player in the ATP), Fish would have been the winner of this tournament. It remains to be seen if he can continue to play at this level.

I also liked Wawrinka. Not as much as a surprise like Fish was, but still an improvement in a player i think will reach the top 10 by the end of 2009. Defeating Berdych, Baghdatis and H.T. Lee in a single tournament before losing to Djokovic in the quarterfinals is not that bad for this young player.

As far as the betting goes, it’s not that great to have +18 units after 3 weeks, but it’s still a positive balance in a crazy time for tennis betting, and i had some bad luck when the Bryan brothers lost their match in the decisive tie-break against Mirnyi and J. Murray. I hoping to do better next weeks.

Indian Wells Quarterfinals

smyke — Thu, 20 Mar 2008 21:25:00 +0000

No time for analysis today (i’m leaving tomorrow on a trip and i need to pack some things ). The most interesting match should be the one between Rafael Nadal and James Blake.

TIP 1:
James Blake v Rafael Nadal : Nadal to win 5 units @ 1.80 – BET365 OK +4 units
TIP 2:
Roger Federer v Tommy Haas : Haas +6 to win 5 units @ 1.90 – BET365 – CANCELLED

Ballance This Week: +4.76 units
Ballance This Month : +18.34 units
Overall Ballance : +18.34 units

Indian Wells : Fourth Round

smyke — Wed, 19 Mar 2008 17:31:00 +0000

The fourth round should be where surprises come up. Every match can go either way, and in my opinion it’s just a matter of pure luck to bet on either one. If i would go on intuition, i would take Wawrinka against H.T. Lee, Ferrero against Nalbandian, Nadal against Tsonga, Murray against Haas, Hewitt agains Fish.
The first tip for today is the Combo tip. I don’t think these favorites for both singles and doubles can stumble today.
The second tip is Blake against Gasquet. James Blake is not much of a better player than Gasquet at the moment, but i think he is. The odds are just to good not to play on Blake today a small amount. Blake has the crowd behind him, and once he gets going is difficult to stop.

COMBO TIP
Guillermo Canas v Novak Djokovic : Djokovic to win @ 1.16 OK
Roger Federer v Ivan Ljubicic : Federer to win 2-0 @ 1.22 OK
B. Bryan & M. Bryan v M. Mirnyi & J. Murray : Bryan & Bryan to win @1.28 LOST
Total : 6 units @ 1.81 – BET365 LOST

SINGLE TIP
Richard Gasquet v James Blake : Blake to win 6 units@ 2.25 – BET365 OK +7.5 units

Ballance This Week: +0.76 units
Ballance This Month : +14.34 units
Overall Ballance : +14.34 units